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\begin{document}


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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\date{March 9, 2026}
\title{\bf La Palma Earthquakes}
\author{
Steve Purves\\
Curvenote\\
and\\Rowan Cockett\\
Curvenote\\
}
\maketitle

\bigskip
\bigskip
\begin{abstract}
In September 2021, a significant jump in seismic activity on the island
of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain) signaled the start of a volcanic
crisis that still continues at the time of writing. Earthquake data is
continually collected and published by the Instituto Geográphico
Nacional (IGN). \ldots{}
\end{abstract}

\noindent%
{\it Keywords:} La Palma, Earthquakes
\vfill

\newpage
\spacingset{1.9} % DON'T change the spacing!


\section{Introduction}\label{introduction}

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://jsds-sports.github.io/jsds-manuscript-template/index.qmd.html}{Article
Notebook}}

\protect\phantomsection\label{cell-fig-timeline}
\begin{figure}[H]

\centering{

\pandocbounded{\includegraphics[keepaspectratio,alt={An event plot of the years of the last 8 eruptions on La Palma.}]{index_files/figure-pdf/fig-timeline-1.pdf}}

}

\caption{\label{fig-timeline}Timeline of recent earthquakes on La Palma}

\end{figure}%

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://jsds-sports.github.io/jsds-manuscript-template/index.qmd.html}{Article
Notebook}}

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://jsds-sports.github.io/jsds-manuscript-template/index.qmd.html}{Article
Notebook}}

Based on data up to and including 1971, eruptions on La Palma happen
every 79.8 years on average.

Studies of the magma systems feeding the volcano, such as
\citet{marrero2019}, have proposed that there are two main magma
reservoirs feeding the Cumbre Vieja volcano; one in the mantle (30-40km
depth) which charges and in turn feeds a shallower crustal reservoir
(10-20km depth).

Eight eruptions have been recorded since the late 1400s
(Figure~\ref{fig-timeline}).

Data and methods are discussed in Section~\ref{sec-data-methods}.

Let \(x\) denote the number of eruptions in a year. Then, \(x\) can be
modeled by a Poisson distribution

\begin{equation}\protect\phantomsection\label{eq-poisson}{
p(x) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^{x}}{x !}
}\end{equation}

where \(\lambda\) is the rate of eruptions per year. Using
Equation~\ref{eq-poisson}, the probability of an eruption in the next
\(t\) years can be calculated.

\begin{longtable}[]{@{}ll@{}}
\caption{Recent historic eruptions on La
Palma}\label{tbl-history}\tabularnewline
\toprule\noalign{}
Name & Year \\
\midrule\noalign{}
\endfirsthead
\toprule\noalign{}
Name & Year \\
\midrule\noalign{}
\endhead
\bottomrule\noalign{}
\endlastfoot
Current & 2021 \\
Teneguía & 1971 \\
Nambroque & 1949 \\
El Charco & 1712 \\
Volcán San Antonio & 1677 \\
Volcán San Martin & 1646 \\
Tajuya near El Paso & 1585 \\
Montaña Quemada & 1492 \\
\end{longtable}

Table~\ref{tbl-history} summarises the eruptions recorded since the
colonization of the islands by Europeans in the late 1400s.

\begin{figure}

\centering{

\pandocbounded{\includegraphics[keepaspectratio]{images/la-palma-map.png}}

}

\caption{\label{fig-map}Map of La Palma}

\end{figure}%

La Palma is one of the west most islands in the Volcanic Archipelago of
the Canary Islands (Figure~\ref{fig-map}).

\begin{figure}[H]

\centering{

\pandocbounded{\includegraphics[keepaspectratio,alt={A scatterplot of earthquake locations plotting latitude against longitude.}]{index_files/figure-latex/notebooks-explore-earthquakes-fig-spatial-plot-output-1.png}}

}

\caption{\label{fig-spatial-plot}Locations of earthquakes on La Palma
since 2017}

\end{figure}%

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://jsds-sports.github.io/jsds-manuscript-template/notebooks/explore-earthquakes-preview.html\#cell-fig-spatial-plot}{Explore
Earthquakes}}

Figure~\ref{fig-spatial-plot} shows the location of recent Earthquakes
on La Palma.

\section{Data \& Methods}\label{sec-data-methods}

\section{Conclusion}\label{conclusion}

\section*{References}\label{references}
\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{References}

\renewcommand{\bibsection}{}
\bibliography{references.bib}





\end{document}
